Each morning following a Buffalo Bills game you’ll find a column on this substack filled with thoughts and observations. Before proceeding I’ll admit if you took the emotion out of Sunday’s wild ride with Minnesota and had no horse in the race, you’d have enjoyed one of the more exciting roller coaster games in recent memory. However, I’m a Bills fan with tons of emotion so piss on that---my heart was pulsating over the final four minutes and overtime and I’m still very much annoyed the next morning. It wasn’t a dagger on the Bills season by a long shot but was a reprehensible loss. Here’s my thoughts:
How inexcusable was yesterday? The Bills had won 52 straight home games when up by at least two touchdowns at the half and hadn’t lost since 1968. I wasn’t even born yet and I’m older than almost anyone reading this.
It’s not time to smash the panic button quite yet, but concern absolutely should be real and you’re sticking your head in the sand if you think otherwise. They’ve played anything but championship caliber football over the past 10 quarters and let’s not beat around the bush here---completely gagged away a home game they were dominating and up by three scores. Over these past two and a half games I’m not sure they’ve looked like a dangerous wild card team let alone a Superbowl favorite frontrunner. Is that an overreaction? Sure, but not entirely inaccurate. The Bills worst enemy all season long continues to be themselves and never was this more evident than yesterday.
It's an distressing topic to bring up but Josh Allen’s recent play has been as much as the problem as anything else. Over the past 10 quarters he’s now tossed six interceptions, including a mind-blowing four in the red zone over the past two games, not to mention being at least partially responsible for the unfathomable fumbled snap leading to Minnesota’s miracle go-ahead touchdown in the waning seconds of regulation. A clear frontrunner for MVP through his first six games, it’s like Allen’s hopped in the time machine and went back to 2019. That’s not a good thing because it’s a place Allen wows you Sportscenter Top 10 moments one play and has you punching a hole through the wall the next. Each of Allen’s last six interceptions were on him, literally 100% on him. No tipped balls, no amazing break on a ball by the defender—each pick has been individually gift wrapped by Allen himself. His legs (84 yards Sunday) continue to partially mask the fact his decision making, especially in the red zone is hurting his team badly over the past two games.
Allen could get a pass from last week’s loss in New Jersey because no one else in that offensive huddle did shit to help him---- the line couldn’t run or pass block to save their life (Allen was sacked five times) and receivers were dropping passes all over. That was positively not the case against Minnesota. Allen’s supporting cast was excellent versus Minnesota. Stefon Diggs was spectacular including a one-handed grab that’ll be replayed a millions times, Gabe Davis had six catches for 93 yards including a few highly difficult grabs (and one that shouldn’t have counted) and they got eight productive catches between Isaiah McKenzie and Dawson Knox. Josh is still great but the criticism these past few weeks, especially yesterday is warranted.
That said, too many supporting players in the offense are having modest 2022 campaigns at best, which plays a part in Allen feeling he needs to do too much. Through nine games Davis has 24 catches for 544 yards---decent numbers but not those of a budding star No. 2 receiver. Know and McKenzie also have 24 catches each but just for 240 and 219 yards respectively. It was talked about on the podcast last week and will until he ultimately signs somewhere (likely soon)----Odell Beckham Jr. would be more than just a “luxury” addition to Buffalo.
Coaching is playing a role in the recent Bills struggles too. Allen’s playing greedy hero ball at key moments that’s leading to game-changing red zone interceptions and I blame at least some of that on his coaches for not finding a way to reel him in some. Sean McDermott made a terrible decision to not kick a field goal up 27-17 in the final quarter on fourth down, leading to the first of Allen’s two picks to Patrick Peterson. Also, shame on Ken Dorsey for continuing to neglect the Bills running game, particularly in the second half. Buffalo’s final 19 plays of the game produced zero carries by running backs. Devin Singletary got stopped for no gain on the final play of the third quarter and didn’t get another carry the rest of the game. James Cook had just one for seven yards. That’s it. And mind you, this was a team at the start of the fourth quarter that was protecting a two-score lead. That’s terrible and in my opinion is leading Josh to do too much, especially when in the red zone. Just look at the final play of the game, Allen tries to force it into Gabe Davis in the end zone when Singletary is literally wide open in the flat on second and 10, and Allen had next to no pressure on him either so that’s no excuse.
A stat that demonstrates how bad the Bills have been in the second half of games--- they haven’t scored a second half touchdown since the Kansas City game a month ago.
If self-inflicted wounds is Buffalo’s biggest problem so far this season, physical wounds runs a close second. Injuries, especially on the defensive side are really hurting them. Damar Hamlin has been excellent in place of Micah Hyde this season but drop offs at other positions have been insane. All three of Buffalo’s losses this year have come in games Jordan Poyer has missed (four in total) and the level of play at safety between Poyer and Jaquan Johnson/Cam Lewis is night and day. Matt Milano was sorely missed in the Jets game last week as was Tremaine Edmunds yesterday, who got injured right before halftime and didn’t return. That doesn’t even count Tre White, who surprisingly still hasn’t played yet this season.
Christian Benford had an interception but make no mistake about it, he didn’t help the cause. I won’t blame him for getting beat routinely by Justin Jefferson as that seems to happen to almost every corner, but he had two bad penalties late in the game including a stupid personal foul penalty for a hit out of bounds, and he also got smoked on the 81-yard touchdown run by Dalvin Cook that helped the Vikings get back in the game when they were down three scores. I understand the last thing Buffalo wants to do is rush White back into the lineup as they want him 100% in December and January but they could really use him right now.
I’m unpleasantly surprised Leslie Frazier didn’t use Dean Marlowe over Cam Lewis. KNOCK THE BALL DOWN ON FOURTH AND 18, CAM!
I need to give Minnesota at least some credit. I don’t think they’re as good as their 8-1 indicates but they’re undeniably talented. The defense can get after the quarterback and man, that offense has some weapons on it, none more than Jefferson, who was the best player on the field Sunday. That fourth and 18 catch he made with one hand is one of the best I’ve ever seen.
Seems to be a lot of Bills bashing in this piece, perhaps too much for a club that’s still 6-3 and very much in the thick of things. That’s fair, but it’s also fair to be angry to watch them a lose a game they had no business dropping. Buffalo finds itself technically third in the AFC east today and while I don’t think the Jets are for real, Miami very much is. Ultimately, I still think the Bills win the division but it’s going to be a battle and Sunday’s result did them no favors. Injuries are beyond their control but finding a way to reel in their superstar quarterback from making back breaking mistakes is—he’s making too many of them and if Buffalo has championship aspirations they better find a way to get Josh Allen back to the way he was playing his first games.